Potential North American Trade War Averted—for Now

Eleventh-hour negotiations have resulted in the United States deciding to pause the imposition of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico for at least 30 days. Energy resources from Canada would have been subject to a lower tariff rate of 10%. The threatened tariffs, which would apply in addition to any other tariffs or duties currently in place, were originally set to take effect on February 4, 2025. 

The 30-day reprieve allows the United States, Canada, and Mexico to avoid what The Wall Street Journal referred to as the "Dumbest Trade War in History"¹ and continue negotiations regarding international trade, immigration, and border security among the three nations.

As a countermeasure, the Government of Canada had announced a 25% surtax on certain goods imported into Canada from the United States (originating from the United States pursuant to the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) marking regulations).

The list of goods (currently 1,256 items) subject to potential retaliatory tariffs released by the Canadian government (categorized by tariff item and description) is available on their website.

The announced countermeasures, which have also been paused, were set to take effect on February 4 (subject to an exception for goods in transit) and would have remained in place until the new tariffs imposed by the United States were eliminated.

Ryan will continue to closely monitor the ongoing negotiations between Canada and the United States on international trade, including any potential customs, duty, or tariff changes, and provide further updates as new information becomes available. 

If you have any questions or concerns about the potential impact of these developments on your organization, please contact the Ryan Customs Duty team.

Maureen Gilfoy
Director, Customs Duty
maureen.gilfoy@ryan.com

Sebastian Drozdziewicz
Senior Manager, Customs Duty
sebastian.drozdziewicz@ryan.com

¹ The Editorial Board, “The Dumbest Trade War in History,” The Wall Street Journal, online edition, January 31, 2025.